Novel coronavirus-2019 (nCoV-19) has halted the lives and people are directed to work from home or distantly, throughout the globe. People are just living with basic necessities of life during nCoV-19 emergency. Every country has different strategy to control nCoV-19 epidemic; some counties with nationwide lockdown and others confined their lockdown strategy to only some states.On 23 January, 2020, at 9AM, China had put the Wuhan under stringent lockdown and no one can enter or leave the city. All public transport services including all kind of flights, railway stations, buss stations and ferry services were halted for indefinite period of time. One person per house, two days a week, was allowed to come out and purchase the grocery and things of daily use. China had taken the most stringent measures to contain nCoV-19 and been successful in this matter so for.Hong Kong and Singapore have taken some aggressive measures and managed the spread of nCoV-19. They identified and isolated the infected ones by testing, traced and quarantined their recently contacted persons and put less restrictions to other community members, that were not infected or contacted with infected person. This strategy is much laborious and needs humongous resources to spare for the screening of whole population. That would be a great debt on economy.
New Zealand and Australia have opted different strategy to check and manage the epidemic as they screened all the travelers for nCoV-19. If they were found positive they were isolated and treated well and all others were quarantined for 14 days for general protection and relaxed restrictions for other community members.
On the other hand, United states of America has opted different strategy to keep control over nCoV-19. USA had put some states under strict lockdown ̶ as Hong Kong and Singapore did, but not for the whole country ̶ ̵that were most affected by nCoV-19 as travelers came from different countries. France, Germany, Italy, Iran, Spain and United Kingdom are also on nation-wide lockdown to contain and cope with nCoV-19 epidemic.
Pakistan, whole country is under the lockdown since March 24, 2020. Now it has been approximately one month that Government of Pakistan has shuttered all the public departments, schools, universities, local and private businesses, all kind of private services; even laborers that work on daily wages are also in home due to this emergency. Only vegetables shops, grocery and medical stores are open for work. This deadly lockdown has put Pakistan under a huge economic loss and Pakistan will suffer economic losses for longer than expected.
As nCoV-19 cases are being increased worldwide day-by-day, governments and policy makers are thinking head-to-head that should this lockdown be lifted or not? In addition to WHO director’s warning, many scientists, policy makers, and epidemiologists are thinking that before lifting lockdown all must have to understand that there could be a second wave of nCoV-19 outbreak too, that might be much aggressive. This raises an important question here, which all have to understand, analyze for and then think when and how lockdown should be lifted? What is the right time to relax the society from lockdown?
Right time to lift the lockdown
Before lifting lockdown, we have to understand and must analyze a few things about second wave of nCoV-19. What the effective reproduction number (R0) is? how many people the average infected person infects in turn is called as effective reproduction number or R0? If more than one person get infection from one infected person which means that R0 is more than one. Which means that the new cases shall occur more rapidly and increase day-by-day. Yes, you are thinking absolutely right that it is not the right time to think about lifting lockdown. If R0 is around or less than 1 then, at this point, there are more chances of lockdown to be lifted. It means that less than one or zero person would be infected from one infected person; which is reflective of very slow spread of nCoV-19 in community and it is manageable.
From above discussion it might be suggested that government and policy makers should have to wait for the R0 to become near to zero before lifting the lockdown either by immediate full-scale or a step-by-step strategy.
How to relax from lockdown?
Immediate full-scale or step-by-step strategy
Immediate full-scale relaxation from this strategic lockdown has not been recommended by any country’s head, epidemiologist or researcher; however, WHO has recommended a step-by-step strategy to lift lockdown. Immediate full-scale lift up might itself be a cause of arise in the second wave of nCoV-19 epidemic throughout the country. On the other hand, a step-by-step lift up strategy would help in keeping check and control over the nCoV-19 epidemic. By opting a step-by-step strategy to lift lockdown, there would definitely be a delay in the second wave of nCoV-19 or it might be lapsed at all. It would also have a long lasting awareness in the community.
Pros and Cons of step-by-step end of lockdown
Everything has its own pros and cons, either it is a software, system or a strategy to cope with some critical situation.
Conclusion: The nCoV-19 pandemic has increased the care and charm of life and taught a great lesson that how to care not only for yourself but for your loved ones too. Different countries have different measures for controlling this pandemic but being human we all are equal. Every country should join hand-in-hands to fight against such pandemics. How China has overcome this deadly situation is a great lesson for all countries that on time, appropriate measures should be done; no matter how much it would cost you; nothing should be above the humanity. As a Pakistani citizen, in this time of crises, we should stand by all public and private National Health Departments, law enforcement departments and our government to bring Pakistan out of this situation.
New Zealand and Australia have opted different strategy to check and manage the epidemic as they screened all the travelers for nCoV-19. If they were found positive they were isolated and treated well and all others were quarantined for 14 days for general protection and relaxed restrictions for other community members.
On the other hand, United states of America has opted different strategy to keep control over nCoV-19. USA had put some states under strict lockdown ̶ as Hong Kong and Singapore did, but not for the whole country ̶ ̵that were most affected by nCoV-19 as travelers came from different countries. France, Germany, Italy, Iran, Spain and United Kingdom are also on nation-wide lockdown to contain and cope with nCoV-19 epidemic.
Pakistan, whole country is under the lockdown since March 24, 2020. Now it has been approximately one month that Government of Pakistan has shuttered all the public departments, schools, universities, local and private businesses, all kind of private services; even laborers that work on daily wages are also in home due to this emergency. Only vegetables shops, grocery and medical stores are open for work. This deadly lockdown has put Pakistan under a huge economic loss and Pakistan will suffer economic losses for longer than expected.
As nCoV-19 cases are being increased worldwide day-by-day, governments and policy makers are thinking head-to-head that should this lockdown be lifted or not? In addition to WHO director’s warning, many scientists, policy makers, and epidemiologists are thinking that before lifting lockdown all must have to understand that there could be a second wave of nCoV-19 outbreak too, that might be much aggressive. This raises an important question here, which all have to understand, analyze for and then think when and how lockdown should be lifted? What is the right time to relax the society from lockdown?
Right time to lift the lockdown
Before lifting lockdown, we have to understand and must analyze a few things about second wave of nCoV-19. What the effective reproduction number (R0) is? how many people the average infected person infects in turn is called as effective reproduction number or R0? If more than one person get infection from one infected person which means that R0 is more than one. Which means that the new cases shall occur more rapidly and increase day-by-day. Yes, you are thinking absolutely right that it is not the right time to think about lifting lockdown. If R0 is around or less than 1 then, at this point, there are more chances of lockdown to be lifted. It means that less than one or zero person would be infected from one infected person; which is reflective of very slow spread of nCoV-19 in community and it is manageable.
From above discussion it might be suggested that government and policy makers should have to wait for the R0 to become near to zero before lifting the lockdown either by immediate full-scale or a step-by-step strategy.
How to relax from lockdown?
Immediate full-scale or step-by-step strategy
Immediate full-scale relaxation from this strategic lockdown has not been recommended by any country’s head, epidemiologist or researcher; however, WHO has recommended a step-by-step strategy to lift lockdown. Immediate full-scale lift up might itself be a cause of arise in the second wave of nCoV-19 epidemic throughout the country. On the other hand, a step-by-step lift up strategy would help in keeping check and control over the nCoV-19 epidemic. By opting a step-by-step strategy to lift lockdown, there would definitely be a delay in the second wave of nCoV-19 or it might be lapsed at all. It would also have a long lasting awareness in the community.
Pros and Cons of step-by-step end of lockdown
Everything has its own pros and cons, either it is a software, system or a strategy to cope with some critical situation.
Pros
|
Cons
|
|
1
|
More
lives savings and less stain on National Health Departments
|
Strain
on National Health Departments
|
2
|
Delay
in second wave of nCoV-19 epidemic
|
Blow to
economy and fiscal debts
|
3
|
Drop in
noise, air and water pollution
|
Affected
businesses and jobs
|
4
|
Drop in
global warming and pleasant environment
|
Pause
in face-to-face education
|
5
|
Healing ozone layer
|
Compromised
mental health due to fear
|
6
|
Learn
to live with fewer resources
|
Increased
pollution and global warming
|
7
|
Care
yourself not just for yourself but for others as well
|
Restrictions
for traveling, social gathering etc.
|
8
|
Learning
new skills online at home
|
Conclusion: The nCoV-19 pandemic has increased the care and charm of life and taught a great lesson that how to care not only for yourself but for your loved ones too. Different countries have different measures for controlling this pandemic but being human we all are equal. Every country should join hand-in-hands to fight against such pandemics. How China has overcome this deadly situation is a great lesson for all countries that on time, appropriate measures should be done; no matter how much it would cost you; nothing should be above the humanity. As a Pakistani citizen, in this time of crises, we should stand by all public and private National Health Departments, law enforcement departments and our government to bring Pakistan out of this situation.
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